A carbon credit represents one tonne of CO₂ equivalent (tCO₂e) that was avoided or removed from the atmosphere. Tokenizing that credit means representing it on-chain, with origin, ownership, and retirement (the "retirement" of the credit when it is used) traceable end to end. It is the same logic of backing and collateral that we apply to any real asset: the token does not invent value, it gives traceability to an asset that already exists.
Voluntary vs. regulated: they are not the same thing
There are two markets, and the distinction matters:
- Voluntary market: companies buy credits on their own initiative, to offset emissions. The credits come from projects certified by private standards (Verra, Gold Standard). It is where Brazil is already relevant today.
- Regulated market: created by law, with an emissions cap and a compliance obligation. In Brazil, it is what Law 15.042/2024 establishes.
The new framework: SBCE and CRVE
Law 15.042/2024, enacted on December 12, 2024, creates the Brazilian Emissions Trading System (SBCE), a cap-and-trade model: the government sets an emissions cap and agents trade the right to emit within it. The central asset is the CRVE (Brazilian Emission Quota), which equals 1 tCO₂e, is fungible and tradable. Implementation is gradual, in five phases.
This matters for the same reason that CVM 88 / 175 matters for RWA: serious carbon tokenization observes the applicable framework instead of circumventing it. Here the framework is not the CVM (a carbon credit is not a security), but rather environmental legislation and the design of the SBCE.
What the projections say (and what they are)
As always, honesty with the numbers. The figures below are third-party projections about the market, not volume realized by us, nor a guarantee of results:
- Up to US$ 120 billion in carbon credit revenue for Brazil by 2030, potentially supplying ~48.7% of global voluntary demand, according to a study by ICC Brasil + WayCarbon.
- A global voluntary market of ~US$ 2 bn (2021) to ~US$ 50 bn by 2030, according to a McKinsey projection.
- Institutional validation: J.P. Morgan launched tokenization of carbon credits (Kinexys Digital Assets, Jul/2025, with S&P Global, EcoRegistry and ICR).
Third-party market projections (ICC Brasil/WayCarbon and McKinsey) and a third-party public initiative (J.P. Morgan/Kinexys). Market estimates; they do not constitute an offer nor a guarantee of results.
The sober reading is not "Brazil will earn US$ 120 bn," but rather "there is a potential recognized by major houses, and now there is a legal framework to unlock it." A projected trajectory is not a guaranteed trajectory.
What tokenization changes
A poorly tracked carbon credit can be sold twice or retired without proof. On-chain, each tonne has its origin, ownership, and retirement recorded, which directly addresses the two chronic problems of the market: double counting and lack of transparency in retirement.
If you structure carbon projects (voluntary or preparing for the SBCE) and want to understand the tokenization path, talk to us. See also the Carbon Tokenization solution.
Notice
Forward Factory is an infrastructure platform for asset tokenization and does not provide investment advice, recommendations or counseling. The solutions described here do not constitute a public offering of securities. When a token represents a security, it observes the corresponding regulation, and the structuring of issuances adopts know-your-customer and anti-money-laundering (KYC/AML) procedures. Any offerings observe the applicable regulation of the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM), including CVM Resolutions No. 88 and No. 175. Past performance is no guarantee of future results; investments involve risk.